|THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 18||Registration||Inaugural session||High Tea||Technical Session I: Health & Education,||Lunch Break||Technical Session II: Financial Inclusion||Tea / Coffee Break||Technical Session III: Open Economy Macroeconomics||Dinner||---||---||---|
|Time||9:00-10:00 am||10:00-10:15 am||10:15-11:15 am||11:15-11:30 am||11:30 am-12:30 pm||12:30-1:30 pm||1:30-3:30 pm||3:30-3:45 pm||3:45-5:15 pm||5:15-5:30 pm||5:30-6:35 pm||6:35-7:00 pm|
|FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19||Technical Session IV: Banking and Financial Market||Tea / Coffee Break||Technical Session V: Political Economy||Tea / Coffee Break||Distinguished Plenary Lecture||Lunch Break||Technical session VI: Labour Economics||Tea/Coffee Break||Technical session VII: Food and Livelihood Security||Tea / Coffee Break||Valedictory Session||High Tea|
In response to the Deaton and eze (2009) explanation of a downward shift in the calorie Engel curve in terms of lower requirements due to health improvements and lower activity levels in India, we develop an alternative explanation embedded in a standard demand theory framework, with food price and expenditure effects and shifting food and expenditure elasticities. The analysis is carried out with unit record data for three NSS rounds over the period 1993-2009: 50th, 61st and 66th. There are shifts in demands due to factors other than lower requirements. While an earlier analysis with the 50th and 61st rounds of the NSS over the period 1993-2004 (Gaiha et al.2012) corroborated in part the Deaton-eze conjecture of lower requirements, the extended analysis for 1993-2009 reported here undermines this conjecture as time effects weaken over the more recent period (2004-2009). But there is also weakening of food price and expenditure elasticities over this period. Closer scrutiny of food preferences and taste for variety is necessary to understand better nutritional deprivation as also to design more effective policies to ameliorate it.A Study of Parents' Private-Public School Choice Post Enrollment in India
This paper aims to identify the factors that lead to the inter-sectoral switch (switch from a private school to a public school or vice-versa) in primary schools, especially in the economically poor section of the society. The results show that chilen with higher cognitive ability scores are more likely to be shifted to a private school when the household does not have a strong credit constraint. Also, a strong negative gender bias against switching of female chilen to private schools is seen from the results. The paper contributes to the existing school choice debate by suggesting that parents perceive the quality of private schools to be better than that of public schools in India.Social Networks and Health Insurance Utilization
This paper examines the role of social networks in increasing use of public welfare programs. In the context of health insurance programs, utilization by socially proximate peers helps individuals learn about program and treatment procedures while also signaling social appropriateness of using formal healthcare, all of which could increase program utilization.Using complete administrative data on claims from a publicly financed health insurance program in India, we estimate the impact of utilization by members of "naturally" occurring caste peers within the village on subsequent first-time utilization of the program. We find that a unit increase in peer utilization increases subsequent utilization by 20%, with negligible effects of out of network individuals. Peers have the strongest effect on the treatment of informationally intensive procedures such as oncology and cardiology. Combining the administrative data with village/ward level census data, reveals that networks are most effective in dense urban areas and where communication is easiest, suggesting that information through social networks complements more formal sources.
This study attempts to investigate the productivity performance of 50 South Asian microfinance institutions (MFIs) by deploying Malmquist total factor productivity approach with a balanced panel data set ranging from 2007-2012. The empirical findings of this study indicate that South Asian MFIs has an improved annual average productivity by 2.1 per cent. Pakistani MFIs exhibited overall 4.1% productivity growth per annum, which is highest among all other countries in South Asia. The productivity growth is basically due to technical efficiency change, however, technological change remained static. Further decomposition of technical efficiency change indicates that overall productivity progress is mainly due to size effect. However, apart from inputs and outputs considered in estimating productivity, this study also finds significant impacts of financial, economic and institutional characteristics in productivity performance.An Assessment of the Functional Financial Literacy in Sri Lanka
This paper explores the existing pattern and the levels of disparity of the functional financial literacy in the Sri Lankan context. The study, mainly using quantitative data, selected the sample representing the three main settlement types: urban, rural and estate sector using multi-stage sampling technique related to cluster sampling. The analysis generated five 'domains' of financial literacy scores that capture respondent's relative skills using factor analysis. Tobit regression analysis and cluster analysis were used for testing the determinants and disparity of financial literacy among the respondents. Moreover, descriptive statistics and other statistical techniques such as key iver analysis and correlation analysis were also appropriately applied. The study found that the socio-economic-demographic characteristics have a very strong association with the financial literacy of individuals. The results of the study highlights that the majority of the respondents demonstrate a modest financial knowledge and can be categorized as a literate (bankable) group. The functional financial literacy was quite diverse across respondents depending on the levels of education, income, gender, age, etc. Moreover, the study unveils the characteristics of the individuals with different levels of financial literacy for those who need it for policy actions. Furthermore, the study identified the target group for emphasizing in the provision of financial education to minimize inequalities with an increase in the financial inclusion of the country.Does Access to Microcredit Help Women in Becoming Entrepreneurs? Evidence from Bangladesh
TThis paper intends to assess the impact of access microcredit on women entrepreneurship in Bangladesh. The descriptive statistics and multivariate techniques have been used to achieve the objective of the paper. The study uses Household Income and Expenditure survey (HIES) 2010 data set. HIES 2010 survey covers 12,240 households from all districts in the country. Considering the endogeneity in the microcredit program participation of women, the study uses instrumental variable technique (IV method) for assessing the impact of access to microcredit on the entrepreneurial status of women. The descriptive statistics indicate that only around 4 per cent of women compared to 39 per cent of men with access to microcredit are entrepreneurs. After the adjustment of the endogeneity, the results from multivariateanalysis indicate that access to microcredit has a significant positive impact on women entrepreneurship. It has also a significant positive impact on men entrepreneurship and the marginal effects of access to microcredit are more on men entrepreneurship than women entrepreneurship. Against the backop of the available information that 91 percent of microcredit programs members in Bangladesh are women, these results highlight that the majority of these women members do not use their microcredit loans for owning businesses.Rather, they are likely to pass those loans on to their household male members. The results from the cross gender impact assessment of access to microcredit on entrepreneurship also confirm this finding. So, it is evident from these results that access to microcredit does not help the majority of women in starting their microenterprises. Therefore, it is important for the policy makers to reconsider the existing technology of giving microcredit loans to women. The redesigning of the microcredit technology is necessary for enabling women to use their microcredit loans for owning microenterprises.Impact assessment of credit program for the tenant farmers in Bangladesh: Evidences from the field experiment Authors
This paper gives us latest evidences from a randomized field experiment on an innovative micro-credit program, namely, BorgachashiUnnayanPrakalpa, for the tenant farmers in Bangladesh. The credit program was designed considering the backop of reaching to landless marginal and small tenant farmers through conventional micro-finance institutions and formal banking systems. It concludes that customized agricultural credit is pivoting means to improve lives and livelihoods of the tenant farmers. It is also conceived as the form of capability to the farmers which helps them to enhance their land use capability and farm productivity. This paper synthesizes the major impacts of the credit program for the tenant farmers and infers some policy recommendations.
This paper examines whether Hi-tech exports volume depends on School enrollment and Domestic credit to private sector in Bangladesh or not through co-integration and vector error correction model. All the variables are found to be co-integrated with three co-integrating vectors. There is a long run causality running from hi-tech exports to school enrollment (tertiary) and domestic credit to private sector. However in the short run no causal relationships have been found among the variables. Moreover the model is found to be error free. The implication of our findings is that in Bangladesh if school enrollment in tertiary level increases and more credit is provided to domestic private sector, it is very likely that our Hi-Tech exports volume will increase in the long run.'Large' fluctuations in Capital flow: How different are these Episodes? A new use of India's Balance of Payment data
The paper provides the most comprehensive analysis of the 'large' fluctuations in capital flow and extends the existing literature by proposing a new use of India's capital flow data. Till now the studies are confined to the net and two-way decomposition of capital flow data. This paper introduces the notion of four-way decomposition of capital flow data and proposes a new taxonomy to categorize the episodes of large fluctuations on the basis of the linkage between net, two-way and four-way decomposition of capital flow data. We identify all the episodes of large fluctuations in total capital inflow and its components, namely, FDI, FPI, Commercial borrowing and tries to spot the difference among the flows and across the episodes. Surges are more frequent than stops, which are certainly reversible. We get several evidences where the stops in net capital inflow are actually flight in gross outflow. All surge or stop episodes are not alike and thus needs to be treated differently. The paper further discusses the change in the macroeconomic environment over these episodes. Current account deficit and country risk are higher over the periods of large fluctuation in capital flow. Episodes of large increase are associated with the decline in fiscal deficit and improved growth rate. Policy interventions are relatively less during the sudden rush in capital inflow. FDI has experienced the lowest number of episodes, which are more persistent while the fluctuations in FPI are more voluminous and reversible. In general, the large fluctuations in capital flow are not idiosyncratic in nature. Most of these episodes have erupted from the policy actions, macroeconomic performance and exogenous shocks.What Next With NIFA? A Lesson From Trends And Contests Behind The Currency Convergence In South Asia
New International Financial Architecture (NIFA) introduce as a framework to prevent from financial crisis after the East and South-East Asian economic crisis in 1990s. Dominance of U.S. dollar as world currency and capital account liberalization are two major aspects commence by NIFA. It formulates awbacks for subordinate regions such as South Asia to peg their currency beneath the super power of U.S. dollar. However, NIFA failed to defend the capitalist giant; U.S from financial crisis in 2007/08. This study has done a financial analyze for South Asian region to identify the role of NIFA behind the monetary integration of region. Required data has been obtained by the World Bank from 1972-2013. One of interesting finding is that the level of determinants of South Asian currencies against U.S. dollar became more and more dissimilar after the establishment of NIFA as an international framework. Results from summery statistics and hierarchical cluster analysis have proven that the pre-crisis and the post-crisis periods show completely different results of the magnitudes of exchange rate differences among countries. Comparison for currency co-movements of six South Asian countries demonstrates that the co-movements are relatively high with Indian rupee rather than U.S. dollar.An analysis of dynamic interdependence between financial cycle and business cycle in the SAARC countries
In this paper, we examine the dynamic interdependence between financial cycle represented by bank credit growth and business cycles as real GDP growth using dynamic spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Using quarterly data on five SAARC countries over the period 1975Q4-2013Q4, the study reports following empirical regularities: First, there appears to be dynamic interdependence between real credit growth and real GDP growth as spillover effects evolve rather heterogenously. Second, the results of within and across SAARC countries indicate that there is limited impact of global financial crisis (2008-2009) on these countries. Third, the spilloveres between credit growth and economic growth are bilateral nature, implying bidirectional interdependence between financial and economic sectors. Fourth, credit growth in Pakistan followed by India is the dominant regional transmitter of shocks to other SAARC countries real sectors. Fifth, in the run-up to financial crisis 2008-2009, credit growth is the emitter of shock spillovers in case of most of the sample countries. Finally, it can be concluded that given the level of dynamic interdedence, SAARC can be considered as the viable economic block.
The role of economic factors and past stock price patterns on stock prices has been subjected to economic research all over the world. However, study like macroeconomic determinants of the stock prices in context of Bangladesh has basically been ignored. This study may lead the way for Bangladesh perspective attempting to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) aggregate stock prices from the joint viewpoint of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and a macroeconomic version of the most prominent equilibrium asset pricing model named, the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). This study investigates the semi-strong form of the EMH based on the macroeconomic variable version of the APT using monthly data of All Share Price Index (DSI) of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and six macroeconomic variables namely, Industrial Production Index (IPI), Call Money Rate (CMR), Broad Money Supply (M2), Crude Oil Price (OP), Exchange Rate (ER) and Index of Bombay Stock Exchange (SENSEX) from January 2001 to December 2012. In addition, the short run and long run relationships between macroeconomic variables and aggregate stock prices in Bangladesh have also determined. The Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration tests reveal that IPI and OP have significant negative long run relationship with DSI, while M2, ER and SENSEX have significant positive long run relationship with DSI. The results of VECM indicate that there is long run causality running from the explanatory variables to DSI. The error correction term of first differenced DSI implies that only 15% of the last month's disequilibrium is corrected this month. The VECM results also show that DSI picks up the disequilibrium quickly and guides the variables of the system back to equilibrium. The study also reveals that individually IPI, CMR and SENSEX are the leading indicators with respect to stock prices in Bangladesh in the short run. Moreover, stock price index of DSE is a leading indicator with respect to IPI and ER in the short run. Therefore, Bangladeshi stock market is motivated by macroeconomic factors, while global stock markets have some influence on it. Hence, it may be concluded that DSE is not efficient in the semi-strong form of EMH. Consequently, investors can earn abnormal profit from the DSE using publicly available macroeconomic information.Regulatory Arbitrage and Presence of Foreign Banks in India
Presence of heterogeneous banking systems across countries provides opportunities to crossborder banks to indulge in activities of regulatory arbitrage. This paper attempts to investigate whether regulatory arbitrage induces presence of foreign banks in India. Using relevant country level data on various aspects of banking regulations, we conduct a series of panel regressions to examine the effect of cross-country gap in banking regulations on foreign banks presence in India. Our results seem to indicate regulatory arbitrage as significantly determining foreign banks' presence in India, after controlling for other socio-economic and geo-political factors (e.g., income level of the home countries, governance quality gaps, socio-economic commonalities, and geographic proximities) between India and the sample of countries included in the study.
The category of Scheduled Castes, created for the purpose of affirmative action in India, is large, heterogeneous and unequal. In 2007, the state of Bihar classified the most disadvantaged among this group as 'Mahadalits,' to better target government transfers to them. A 'Vikas Mitra' was recruited from the most populous Mahadalit caste in each panchayat and had the task of connecting households to government officials administering social welfare programmes. We use household survey data from 48 panchayats across four districts of Bihar to ask whether households that belonged to the same caste as the Vikas Mitra had a significantly higher chance of getting programme benefits, as compared to Mahadalit households of other castes. We find this to be true for programmes with large one-time transfers such as the Indira Awas Yojana but not for more regular transfers, such as subsidized food grains. Our results suggest that jati identity remains salient within the Scheduled Castes of India.Stability of Seat Sharing Agreements in Political Coalitions
We examine the post-election stability of a winning coalition that was formed pre-election. The pre-election coalition is formed based on the number of constituencies on which parties are going to contest election. If this coalition gets majority then it may form government. The post election coalition is formed based on sharing of ministerial berths. We show that the winning coalition is stable provided the number of portfolios to be shared is sufficiently high. The benchmark to define the sufficiently high ministerial seats depends on the nature of minimal threshold coalition of the party who initiated the coalition and has won the election. If the ministerial seats are not sufficiently high then the winning coalition is not stable. We also get a paradoxical result that the party initiating a coalition whose coalition also wins the election and has a stable coalition may get zero ministerial seats.
awing on a sample of households in Bangladesh, we utilize the Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) analysis to investigate the impact of internal and international remittances on households' net assets. Empirical evidence suggest a curvilinear (inverted U shaped) relationship between the amount of internal remittances and net assets. Similar results are reported for rural and urban households separately. Concerning the effect of international remittances on net assets, the results indicate an overall U shaped relationship, although when the amount of remittances exceeds 100,000 takas, households in Bangladesh increase their net assets. Again, results are similar when the sample is divided into rural and urban households.Impact of Neo-liberal Economic Policy on the Legal Framework and State Policy on Labour : A Case of Sri Lanka and India
South Asian nations in the past three decades have entered into a process of liberalisation and deregulation of the economy. This shift in the economy from a social democratic welfare state model to a market oriented neo-liberal model has also had an impact on the legal framework and state policy governing the social relations within the economy between labour and capital. This papers assesses the changes in the legal frameworks and state policies in India and Sri Lanka on labour to demonstrate that the pro-labour legal framework that was in place during the preliberalisation period is now rapidly and aggressive being replaced by an anti-labour, pro-capital legal regime. Reforms to legal regime, proposed and successfully enacted, in both countries during the post liberalisation period are extensively detailed, awing the conclusion that interventionist state's role in the previous welfare state era as the protector of labouring masses interests within an import substitution oriented national economy, has been replaced by a minimal state that is aggressively siding with the interests of the Capital within an export oriented globalized economy.Why are fewer married women joining the work force in India? A decomposition analysis over two decades
Unlike the global trend, India has witnessed a secular decline in women's employment rates over the past few decades. We use parametric and semi-parametric decomposition techniques to show that the fall in women's labor force participation rate is explained fully by their individual and household attributes during 1987-1999 and accounts for half of the decline in 1999-2009. Our findings underscore increasing education levels amongst rural married women and the men in their households as the most prominent attributes in explaining this decline. We provide suggestive evidence that a rise in more educated women's returns to home production, relative to their returns in the labor market, may have adversely affected female labor force participation rates in India.Labour market segmentation in the Indian Economy: An Investigation
The paper investigates the hypothesis of labour market segmentation in the Indian labour market along the lines of formality and informality using NSSO data over the period 2004-05 to 2011-12. The results of our analysis lend credible support in favour of the labour market segmentation hypothesis. The study finds significant wage gap between the formal and the informal sectors which cannot be explained entirely due to the differences in endowments of workers. However, the extent of discrimination is seen to decline over the study period. Further, decomposition analysis along the quantiles reveals the discrimination effect to be smaller in the lower quantiles compared to the higher quantiles. The results highlight the need for appropriate government measures to counter the above adverse trends.
The Indian Public Distribution System is one of the world's largest food security programs and provides a monthly quota of cereals at dis-counted prices to poor households. I study the e_ect of the program on nutritional outcomes by exploiting variations in value of the subsidy resulting from differences in state program rules and local market prices. Using household consumption data, I find a small but positive impact on calories from all food groups, not just cereals. The impact on caloric intake is substantially smaller in states where corruption is high.Moving towards Sustainable Livelihoods from Extreme Poverty: Evidence from CFPR-TUP programme of BRAC in Bangladesh
One of the salient issues in economics is the impact of altered climatic conditions (especially climate extremes) on mean and distribution of agricultural yields. This study examines the impact of climate change on mean and variance of yield of three food grains grown in India, namely, rice, sorghum and pearl millet. An agricultural production function is estimated with exogenous climate variables, namely, precipitation and temperature controlling for other non climate inputs used in production, namely, irrigation, fertilizer and high yielding variety seeds. To encapsulate the impact of climate extremes, climate variables are modelled as anomalies. District level analysis is carried out using a panel data set for 1966-2002. Results show that climate change adversely affects mean and variance of crop yields. Rice yields are found to be sensitive to rainfall extremes, extremely high temperatures increase sorghum yield variability, with pearl millet yields invariant to both rainfall and temperature extremes.